Weekend Box Office Showdown: How Dragons, Zombies, and Space Boys Will Vie for Dominance
This weekend’s box office promises a fascinating battle as Universal’s “How to Train Your Dragon” defends its throne against two high-profile newcomers: Sony’s long-awaited zombie sequel “28 Years Later” and Disney/Pixar’s original sci-fi adventure “Elio.” With three distinctly different films targeting various audience segments, the weekend presents a compelling study in franchise power, brand loyalty, and the current theatrical landscape.
The Reigning Champion: Can “How to Train Your Dragon” Hold Its Ground?
After an impressive $84.6 million domestic debut last weekend, Universal’s “How to Train Your Dragon” enters its sophomore frame with significant momentum. The animated fantasy is projected to add another $40-48 million to its tally, which would push its domestic total past $130 million by Sunday evening.
The film’s strong word-of-mouth and appeal across multiple demographics have positioned it as the family entertainment of choice. With schools out for summer break across most of the country, “Dragon” should benefit from increased matinee attendance and continue to dominate the family demographic despite new competition.
What’s particularly noteworthy is how this performance validates Universal’s decision to revive the franchise after a six-year absence. The film has already accumulated over $200 million worldwide, proving that properly executed nostalgia plays can still deliver substantial returns in today’s theatrical market.
Danny Boyle’s “28 Years Later”: Can Zombies Still Infect the Box Office?
Sony’s “28 Years Later” arrives as the most anticipated horror release of the summer, with Thursday previews generating a robust $5.8 million. Early tracking suggests the film could open between $35-45 million domestically, which would represent a massive improvement over its predecessors — “28 Days Later” opened to $10 million in 2002, while “28 Weeks Later” debuted with $9.8 million in 2007.
The sequel benefits from several factors aligning in its favor. Director Danny Boyle and writer Alex Garland have returned to the franchise they created, bringing an authenticity that fans have embraced. Critical reception has been overwhelmingly positive, with the film currently holding an impressive 92% rating from critics. The marketing campaign has effectively capitalized on nostalgia for the original while emphasizing how the new installment expands the mythology.
However, “28 Years Later” faces a unique challenge: zombie fatigue. After years of “The Walking Dead” and countless zombie-themed productions across media, the question remains whether audiences still crave undead entertainment. Early indicators suggest the film’s quality and pedigree are overcoming any genre exhaustion, particularly among male viewers over 25, who have rated it highly in preview screenings.
This opening weekend will be crucial as Sony has already announced plans for a trilogy, with the second and third installments reportedly filming back-to-back. A strong debut would cement the studio’s confidence in this ambitious strategy.
Pixar’s “Elio”: Has the Animation Giant Lost Its Box Office Magic?
Perhaps the biggest question mark of the weekend is Disney/Pixar’s “Elio,” which generated $3 million from Thursday previews. Industry projections place the film’s opening weekend between $20-30 million domestically, with a global debut potentially exceeding $50 million.
These figures would represent a concerning outcome for a studio that once reliably produced $75-100 million openers. Several factors contribute to the more modest expectations:
- Pixar’s recent theatrical releases have underperformed, with “Elemental” opening to just $29.6 million last summer (though it demonstrated remarkable legs).
- The film’s reported $150 million production budget creates significant pressure for commercial success.
- Original concepts have struggled compared to sequels in Pixar’s lineup, with “Inside Out 2” earning a staggering $1.69 billion worldwide last year.
“Elio” tells the story of an 11-year-old boy who makes first contact with aliens and becomes Earth’s ambassador to the rest of the universe. The premise recalls elements of films like “E.T.” and “The Last Starfighter,” but with Pixar’s signature emotional depth and visual splendor.
Disney executives will be watching closely to determine whether Pixar’s theatrical strategy requires further adjustment. After experimenting with direct-to-streaming releases during the pandemic, the studio has recommitted to theatrical distribution, but results have been mixed outside of established franchises.
The Battle for Second Place: Zombies vs. Aliens
While “How to Train Your Dragon” appears poised to retain the top spot, the real drama lies in the battle for second place between “28 Years Later” and “Elio.” Current projections give the edge to Boyle’s zombie thriller, but several factors could shift the balance:
- Weather conditions across key markets could impact horror attendance, which typically skews toward evening showings.
- Pixar’s brand recognition might drive stronger Saturday family attendance than currently anticipated.
- Critical reception for “Elio” could generate last-minute interest if reviews (embargoed until Friday) prove exceptionally positive.
The demographic separation between these films (horror targeting adults vs. animation targeting families) means both could potentially find their audiences without directly cannibalizing each other. However, with “Dragon” already occupying the family space, “Elio” faces the steeper climb to establish itself.
The Supporting Cast: Holdovers and Smaller Releases
Beyond the headline-grabbing trio, several films will compete for the remaining spots in the weekend’s top five. Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch” enters its fourth weekend with solid audience support despite mixed critical reception. A24’s “Materialists” continues to demonstrate the distributor’s ability to find audiences for distinctive, conversation-driving content.
New limited release “Bride Hard” from Magenta Light Studios enters the frame with poor reviews but potential appeal to fans seeking counter-programming. The action-comedy seems unlikely to crack the top five but could find a niche audience if word-of-mouth improves upon critical assessment.
Implications for the Summer Box Office Season
This weekend represents a critical juncture in the summer box office narrative. After a stronger-than-expected May and early June, the industry hopes to maintain momentum heading into the crucial July 4th corridor.
The performance of three distinct types of films — a franchise animated feature, a revival of a dormant horror property, and an original animated concept — will provide valuable data points for studios planning release strategies in an increasingly complex theatrical landscape.
A strong showing across all three films would signal healthy audience demand across multiple demographics. Conversely, underperformance from any of these titles might accelerate ongoing conversations about what types of content merit theatrical exclusivity in today’s entertainment ecosystem.
Projected Top Five (June 20-22, 2025)
Based on current tracking, preview performances, and historical patterns, here’s how the weekend’s top five is likely to shape up:
- How to Train Your Dragon – $42 million
- 28 Years Later – $38 million
- Elio – $27 million
- Lilo & Stitch – $11 million
- Materialists – $6 million
The Long View: What This Weekend Means for Studios
Beyond the immediate numbers, this weekend’s results will influence strategic decisions across Hollywood:
For Universal, strong “Dragon” hold would justify further investment in animation and nostalgic IP revivals. For Sony, a robust “28 Years Later” opening validates their trilogy plans and suggests horror remains a reliable theatrical draw when executed with high production values and creative integrity.
Perhaps most significantly, Disney/Pixar faces a moment of truth with “Elio.” After restructuring and recommitting to theatrical releases, the studio needs to demonstrate it can successfully launch original concepts, not just sequels. The outcome will likely influence decisions about upcoming Pixar projects currently in development.
As theaters navigate the crucial summer corridor between tentpoles and awards season contenders, this weekend offers a fascinating test case in how different types of films can coexist in today’s theatrical ecosystem. By Monday morning, we’ll have valuable new data about what today’s audiences are willing to leave their homes to experience on the big screen.
Whatever the outcome, this weekend highlights the industry’s continued reliance on recognizable IP while occasionally testing the waters with new concepts — a balancing act that defines modern Hollywood’s approach to theatrical distribution.